Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS61 KBTV 252313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
713 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is currently moving across the area with scattered
showers and possibly a rumble of thunder in southern Vermont.
Drier and cooler conditions briefly return tonight, then
increasing heat and humidity develops through Monday with
limited chances for rain. More unsettled weather is anticipated
through Wednesday, followed by dry and cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...A cold front currently across Orange
county and Addison County in Vermont is moving southeast across
the region. Light to moderate showers associated with the
boundary have led to generally a few hundreths to two-tenths of
an inch of rain as it passes through. Some lingering showers are
trailing behind as a the dewpoint boundary is currently
crossing the international border. Showers today will continue
to be scattered hit or miss type. This front has weakened quite
a bit with limited instability and two defined boundaries. As a
result the thunderstorm threat has trended down considerably
with satellite imagery also showing stable mountain waves across
Vermont and considerable cloud cover. There is some clearing
across southern Rutland and Windsor, so if there is to be any
rumbles, they would be there across the extreme southern portion
of our region.

Showers look to diminish and move out by mid afternoon with
clearing and drying conditions for the evening. Clouds are
already clearing behind the front in the St. Lawrence Valley and
this will be the trend for the rest of the region. Under
northwest flow behind the front, wildfire smoke from the
Canadian wildfires in Manitoba and Saskatchewan will gradually
sink into the North Country. Current visibilities upstream do
not show any reductions, but observations in central and
northern Quebec are sparse. At a minimum there may be some air
quality reductions and haze around beginning late tonight into
tomorrow. Clearing skies and lighter winds are anticipated
tonight, and with the rainfall from today, patchy fog is likely
to develop in the climatologically favored locations in addition
to the Northeast Kingdom. The added smoke may enhance the fog
from added cloud condensation nuclei leading to some higher
confidence in locally denser areas of fog. Overnight lows, as a
result of good radiational cooling, should also fall into the
upper 40s in the higher terrain and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

Fog should mix out in the morning on Saturday with pleasant
weather to start the weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper
80s tomorrow, however, dewpoints will only be in the upper 50s,
making it feel more comfortable. The only downside on an
otherwise pleasant day Saturday will be the continued presence
of haze and smoke from the wildfires. No air quality alerts are
currently issued, but reduced air quality tomorrow is possible.
Clouds will increase Saturday night but should remain on the
dry side with temperatures in the 60s. An approaching shortwave
late Saturday night may lead to some breezy conditions in the
Champlain Valley from channeled flow, particularly on Lake
Champlain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...Sunday will see a resurgence of
humidity as a shortwave skids across the region. Trends have
been to keep the bulk of the energy to our south though it has
been hovering along the Rutland/Bennington County border so it
will require some monitoring for rain chances. The wave will be
fairly progressive so any precipitation will be short-lived and
mainly confined to early Sunday morning through early Sunday
afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky and heavily
dependent on the position of the shortwave. North of the wave,
temperatures will be in the upper 80s, and closer to 80 further
southward. Cloud cover from the position of the wave may lead to
higher or lower temperatures as a result. Southerly winds will
likely lead to breezy to gusty winds in the higher terrain as an
associated low-level jet rides near the surface to a few
thousand feet agl. Increased shear and some potential daytime
heating may provide enough instability for a few rumbles of
thunder, particularly in southern Vermont, but without any main
forcing mechanism, robust thunderstorms chances look low and
limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...Hot and humid conditions returning to
the North Country will be the primary concern for the Monday
and Tuesday time frame. 850-500mb shortwave ridging should bring
the hottest conditions on Monday, with 850mb temps near +19C
supportive of valley temperatures in the 90-95F range. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s to near 70F expected. May reach heat advisory
criteria in valley locations on Monday, and this will be
monitored closely by forthcoming shifts. With a shortwave trough
in nwly flow potentially crossing the area on Tuesday, looking
for a chance of showers and thunderstorms (PoPs 30-40%), and
given favorable PBL heating, a few stronger storms will be
possible. Stronger sfc-850mb cold frontal passage expected
sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Thereafter,
looking at a significant change in air mass as cooler and drier
air moves in from wrn Quebec and northern Ontario. Sfc
anticyclone over the Great Lakes is unseasonably strong (+2 to
+3 SD above the CFSR climatology) and slow moving for late July,
and should bring tranquil and low humidity conditions for
Thursday and Friday next week. Looking for high temperatures in
the mid-upper 70s, and delightful dewpoints in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. With high pressure and mostly clear conditions,
present indications suggest good potential for radiational fog
Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night, especially in
favored valley locations within the Adirondacks and across
central and eastern Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Precipitation has ended at all terminals as
a cold front continues to push through the North Country.
Northerly winds less than 10 knots can be expected through 2Z
with winds going light and variable through the remainder of the
TAF package thereafter. The stage has been set for fog to
develop with a strong frontal inversion, light winds, clearing
skies, and rainfall today. One wild card for tonight will be
wildfire smoke that will be shifting south into our forecast
area tonight. The smoke may help enhance fog across the region
which may lead to 1/4 to 1/2 visibility fog which may last an
hour or two longer than what is climatologically expected for
this time of the year. Nevertheless, fog will likely lift by 13Z
with mostly clear skies and light winds during the day on
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Clay